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Start > Betting strategies > Kellys criterion

Kelly's criterion

Elevate your betting game with the renowned Kelly Criterion strategy. Designed to maximize gains while managing risks, the Kelly Criterion provides a mathematical approach to determine the optimal bet size based on your edge in a given wager. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting, the Kelly Criterion empowers you to make informed decisions and achieve long-term success. Discover how this strategy can revolutionize your betting experience and help you take calculated steps towards greater profitability. Explore the benefits of the Kelly Criterion now!

Updated: about 0 hours ago.

This strategy is probably the most popular and used among professional players and is based on mathematics instead of feeling and chances, which of course increases your chances of winning. When placing a bet there are many different things to consider, when it comes to Kelly's criterion there are three things, these are: how to place your bet, are the odds worth betting on? And what amount you should bet. So, first you need to choose how to distribute your money and then you need to decide how much to bet and if the odds are worth betting on. This strategy will help you calculate how much you should actually bet on a specific odds that is higher than expected, in other words - overvalued. If this goes your way, your money will grow significantly.

Learning this method is quite complicated and time consuming, therefore ArbIQ does the math for you and only shows the odds you have to bet on in order to use this method, as well how you should distribute your bets by percentage. Now beginners can also use this strategy because we at ArbIQ does everything for you. All you must do is place your bets.

Total bankroll (amount to bet):

Amount set:

NRL | Brisbane Broncos - Gold Coast Titans
Home team: Brisbane Broncos
Date & time: 2024-05-26 04:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Independiente - Godoy Cruz
Home team: Independiente
Date & time: 2024-05-18 18:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | River Plate - Belgrano de Cordoba
Home team: River Plate
Date & time: 2024-05-18 21:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Defensa y Justicia - Gimnasia La Plata
Home team: Defensa y Justicia
Date & time: 2024-05-18 23:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Instituto de Córdoba - Union Santa Fe
Home team: Instituto de Córdoba
Date & time: 2024-05-18 23:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Barracas Central - Sarmiento de Junin
Home team: Barracas Central
Date & time: 2024-05-19 18:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Platense - Independiente
Home team: Platense
Date & time: 2024-05-19 18:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Banfield - Atlético Huracán
Home team: Banfield
Date & time: 2024-05-19 20:45
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Talleres - Atlético Tucuman
Home team: Talleres
Date & time: 2024-05-19 20:45
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Central Córdoba - Boca Juniors
Home team: Central Córdoba
Date & time: 2024-05-19 23:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Estudiantes - Deportivo Riestra
Home team: Estudiantes
Date & time: 2024-05-20 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | San Lorenzo - Lanus
Home team: San Lorenzo
Date & time: 2024-05-20 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Racing Club - Argentinos Juniors
Home team: Racing Club
Date & time: 2024-05-21 00:15
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Rosario Central - CA Tigre BA
Home team: Rosario Central
Date & time: 2024-05-21 00:15
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Primera División - Argentina | Velez Sarsfield BA - Newells Old Boys
Home team: Velez Sarsfield BA
Date & time: 2024-05-21 23:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
A-League | Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory
Home team: Central Coast Mariners
Date & time: 2024-05-25 09:45
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Austrian Football Bundesliga | Sturm Graz - Austria Klagenfurt
Home team: Sturm Graz
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Austrian Football Bundesliga | Rapid Wien - Hartberg
Home team: Rapid Wien
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Austrian Football Bundesliga | RB Salzburg - LASK
Home team: RB Salzburg
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Belgium First Div | Westerlo - KV Mechelen
Home team: Westerlo
Date & time: 2024-05-18 16:15
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Belgium First Div | Standard Liege - Gent
Home team: Standard Liege
Date & time: 2024-05-18 18:45
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Belgium First Div | Cercle Brugge KSV - Union Saint-Gilloise
Home team: Cercle Brugge KSV
Date & time: 2024-05-19 11:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Belgium First Div | Anderlecht - Club Brugge
Home team: Anderlecht
Date & time: 2024-05-19 16:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Belgium First Div | Genk - Royal Antwerp
Home team: Genk
Date & time: 2024-05-20 16:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Bragantino-SP - Juventude
Home team: Bragantino-SP
Date & time: 2024-06-01 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Vitoria - Internacional
Home team: Vitoria
Date & time: 2024-06-01 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Fluminense - Atletico Goianiense
Home team: Fluminense
Date & time: 2024-06-01 21:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Grêmio - Botafogo
Home team: Grêmio
Date & time: 2024-06-02 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Criciuma - Bahia
Home team: Criciuma
Date & time: 2024-06-02 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Atletico Paranaense - Flamengo
Home team: Atletico Paranaense
Date & time: 2024-06-02 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Corinthians - Sao Paulo
Home team: Corinthians
Date & time: 2024-06-02 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Atletico Mineiro - Palmeiras
Home team: Atletico Mineiro
Date & time: 2024-06-02 21:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro
Home team: Vasco da Gama
Date & time: 2024-06-02 21:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série A | Cuiabá - Fortaleza
Home team: Cuiabá
Date & time: 2024-06-02 21:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Amazonas FC - Paysandu
Home team: Amazonas FC
Date & time: 2024-05-18 20:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Goiás - Botafogo
Home team: Goiás
Date & time: 2024-05-18 21:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Sport Recife - Avai
Home team: Sport Recife
Date & time: 2024-05-19 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Santos - Brusque FC
Home team: Santos
Date & time: 2024-05-19 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Operario PR - Ceará
Home team: Operario PR
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Chapecoense - Ponte Preta
Home team: Chapecoense
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Mirassol - Ituano
Home team: Mirassol
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Brazil Série B | Guarani - América Mineiro
Home team: Guarani
Date & time: 2024-05-21 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Super League - China | Qingdao Hainiu FC - Beijing FC
Home team: Qingdao Hainiu FC
Date & time: 2024-05-21 11:35
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Super League - China | Henan FC - Shanghai Shenhua FC
Home team: Henan FC
Date & time: 2024-05-21 11:35
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Super League - China | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC - Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
Home team: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Date & time: 2024-05-21 12:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Super League - China | Qingdao West Coast FC - Changchun Yatai
Home team: Qingdao West Coast FC
Date & time: 2024-05-22 11:35
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Argentina - Canada
Home team: Argentina
Date & time: 2024-06-21 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Peru - Chile
Home team: Peru
Date & time: 2024-06-22 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Ecuador - Venezuela
Home team: Ecuador
Date & time: 2024-06-22 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Mexico - Jamaica
Home team: Mexico
Date & time: 2024-06-23 01:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | USA - Bolivia
Home team: USA
Date & time: 2024-06-23 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Uruguay - Panama
Home team: Uruguay
Date & time: 2024-06-24 01:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Colombia - Paraguay
Home team: Colombia
Date & time: 2024-06-24 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa América | Brazil - Costa Rica
Home team: Brazil
Date & time: 2024-06-25 01:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Junior FC - Botafogo
Home team: Junior FC
Date & time: 2024-05-28 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Clube Atlético Mineiro - Caracas FC
Home team: Clube Atlético Mineiro
Date & time: 2024-05-28 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | LDU Quito - Club Universitario de Deportes
Home team: LDU Quito
Date & time: 2024-05-28 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Peñarol Montevideo - Rosario Central
Home team: Peñarol Montevideo
Date & time: 2024-05-28 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Club Bolívar - Palestino
Home team: Club Bolívar
Date & time: 2024-05-29 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Flamengo-RJ - Millonarios
Home team: Flamengo-RJ
Date & time: 2024-05-29 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Estudiantes La Plata - Huachipato
Home team: Estudiantes La Plata
Date & time: 2024-05-29 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Grêmio - The Strongest
Home team: Grêmio
Date & time: 2024-05-29 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Fluminense-RJ - Alianza Lima
Home team: Fluminense-RJ
Date & time: 2024-05-30 00:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Barcelona SC - Cobresal
Home team: Barcelona SC
Date & time: 2024-05-30 00:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Cerro Porteño - Colo Colo
Home team: Cerro Porteño
Date & time: 2024-05-30 00:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Sao Paulo - Club Atletico Talleres
Home team: Sao Paulo
Date & time: 2024-05-30 00:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Independiente del Valle - Liverpool FC Montevideo
Home team: Independiente del Valle
Date & time: 2024-05-30 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras-SP - San Lorenzo
Home team: Palmeiras-SP
Date & time: 2024-05-30 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | River Plate - Deportivo Táchira
Home team: River Plate
Date & time: 2024-05-31 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Copa Libertadores | Libertad Asuncion - Nacional de Montevideo
Home team: Libertad Asuncion
Date & time: 2024-05-31 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Denmark Superliga | OB Odense BK - Randers FC
Home team: OB Odense BK
Date & time: 2024-05-19 12:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Denmark Superliga | Vejle Boldklub - Hvidovre IF
Home team: Vejle Boldklub
Date & time: 2024-05-20 12:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Denmark Superliga | Lyngby - Viborg FF
Home team: Lyngby
Date & time: 2024-05-20 12:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Denmark Superliga | Silkeborg IF - Brondby IF
Home team: Silkeborg IF
Date & time: 2024-05-20 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Denmark Superliga | FC Nordsjaelland - FC Midtjylland
Home team: FC Nordsjaelland
Date & time: 2024-05-20 16:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Denmark Superliga | AGF Aarhus - FC Copenhagen
Home team: AGF Aarhus
Date & time: 2024-05-21 17:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Championship | Leeds United - Southampton
Home team: Leeds United
Date & time: 2024-05-26 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Arsenal - Everton
Home team: Arsenal
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Crystal Palace - Aston Villa
Home team: Crystal Palace
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Chelsea - Bournemouth
Home team: Chelsea
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Brentford - Newcastle United
Home team: Brentford
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Brighton and Hove Albion - Manchester United
Home team: Brighton and Hove Albion
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Burnley - Nottingham Forest
Home team: Burnley
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Luton - Fulham
Home team: Luton
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Liverpool - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Home team: Liverpool
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Manchester City - West Ham United
Home team: Manchester City
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
EPL | Sheffield United - Tottenham Hotspur
Home team: Sheffield United
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
FA Cup | Manchester City - Manchester United
Home team: Manchester City
Date & time: 2024-05-25 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Veikkausliiga - Finland | IF Gnistan - KuPS Kuopio
Home team: IF Gnistan
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Veikkausliiga - Finland | Ekenäs IF - FC Lahti
Home team: Ekenäs IF
Date & time: 2024-05-19 15:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Veikkausliiga - Finland | Ilves Tampere - FC Inter Turku
Home team: Ilves Tampere
Date & time: 2024-05-22 17:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Veikkausliiga - Finland | FC Haka - AC Oulu
Home team: FC Haka
Date & time: 2024-05-24 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | AS Monaco - Nantes
Home team: AS Monaco
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Toulouse - Brest
Home team: Toulouse
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Lorient - Clermont
Home team: Lorient
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Le Havre - Marseille
Home team: Le Havre
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Lille - Nice
Home team: Lille
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Lyon - Strasbourg
Home team: Lyon
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Metz - Paris Saint Germain
Home team: Metz
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | RC Lens - Montpellier
Home team: RC Lens
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 1 - France | Stade de Reims - Rennes
Home team: Stade de Reims
Date & time: 2024-05-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Ligue 2 - France | Rodez AF - Paris FC
Home team: Rodez AF
Date & time: 2024-05-21 18:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | 1. FC Kaiserslautern - Eintracht Braunschweig
Home team: 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Fortuna Düsseldorf - 1. FC Magdeburg
Home team: Fortuna Düsseldorf
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Hamburger SV - 1. FC Nürnberg
Home team: Hamburger SV
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Elversberg - Karlsruher SC
Home team: Elversberg
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Greuther Fürth - FC Schalke 04
Home team: Greuther Fürth
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Wehen Wiesbaden - FC St. Pauli
Home team: Wehen Wiesbaden
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Hannover 96 - Holstein Kiel
Home team: Hannover 96
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | Hansa Rostock - SC Paderborn
Home team: Hansa Rostock
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Bundesliga 2 - Germany | VfL Osnabrück - Hertha Berlin
Home team: VfL Osnabrück
Date & time: 2024-05-19 13:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
Super League - Greece | AEK Athens - PAS Lamia 1964
Home team: AEK Athens
Date & time: 2024-05-19 17:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet: